During the English soccer season, Terry Stevens often checks travel websites for last-minute specials across the pond. If a good fare is available, he goes to see a match. So when he saw that a favourite team had qualified for a final at London’s Wembley Stadium this week, he tried to book a quick getaway.
He lucked in at the last minute, with a British Airways deal on ba.com that threw in two free nights in a London hotel. The final price tag, with tax: about $1,000, including a $200 upgrade to premium economy class on the way there. It’s far less than such a trip would have cost a year or even a few months ago.
These days, as is the case with so many other consumer products, bargain airfares are there for the taking. But, as carriers aggressively cut back on planes and staff worldwide, passenger demand is falling even faster. As a result, seat sales and falling fares will probably continue until customer demand picks up.
And right now, the numbers don’t look good for the airlines. In February, North American carriers took 7.1 per cent of their seats out of the market by reducing flights on underperforming routes. At the same time, demand fell 12 per cent.
Although major Canadian airlines have fared a bit better price, worldwide the numbers are worse: In February, as airlines around the globe cut capacity 5.9 per cent, passenger volume fell about 10 per cent.
That means a lot of empty seats. And it should mean a lot of bargains.
But when and where are the best deals? It depends. For one thing, you can score – as Stevens did – by waiting until the last minute. Airlines have noticed that consumers are waiting longer to book, so they are offering some of their biggest discounts to latecomers. This means that it’s smart to get e-mail alerts from airlines and to check airline websites for special offers.
But while you’re shopping, the rules of supply and demand apply. If you’re planning to fly at the busiest times – say to Europe in June and home in August before Labour Day – you aren’t likely to find low fares.
If you don’t have to travel at peak times, you can find major savings. Chris Ryall, president of Travel Marketing Experts, was heading for Berlin last month for a major travel trade exhibition and was expecting to pay a lot. But prices were lower than they usually are for the shoulder season. Ryall’s Air Canada fare in economy, booked about a month in advance, was $782 – he was expecting to pay about $1,300. Various European airlines are offering similar markdowns.
In general, tracking the best fares right now is tricky. A senior agent at a top Toronto firm says that although fares are all over the place, she has seen two-day sales followed by a return to higher prices. The lesson: Keep a close eye on shifting fares.
And she has noticed that European charter flights are generally cheaper than they were last year, as are charter flights to sun destinations. For example, a colleague booked a client a round trip to Cancun for $48.
When business is down, airlines also make more use of consolidators, companies, such as SkyLink, that buy bulk seats at low rates and sell them through travel agencies. “When the airlines are struggling to fill seats, that’s the time to check with travel agencies, both the big online ones and retail offices, for consolidator fares,” says consultant Chris Rivers, who has headed up both KLM in Canada and a major consolidator.
As we approach the summer, many carriers are moving aircraft from serving sun destinations to domestic and European routes. If you are flying within Canada, it makes sense to check Air Canada and WestJet but also smaller airlines such as Porter and especially Sunwing – both serve a number of Canadian airports.
In the longer term, trying to predict where airfares are heading is like gambling on the stock market. Rick Seaney, chief executive officer of FareCompare.com, says airfares are fickle, especially now, when oil prices – one of the major costs for airlines – are fluctuating wildly. “There’s not much history for oil running from $55 to $150, back to $40 [and] hitting the worst recession since World War II,” he says. His website has eight updates a day because of the constantly shifting fares.
Once you book, though, if the person sitting next to you on the plane paid less than you, so be it. Chances are you paid less than many of the other passengers.
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